Agriculture and drought in the Horn of Africa...

Somalia gets about the same annual precipitation as my hometown of Fresno, CA yet produces 1/6 the agriculture... Why?

Something interesting about me…

In 1985-86 I lived in Mogadishu Somalia and attended the American School of Mogadishu for 2nd grade. This was the sister city to Fresno, CA where my family lived and thus my parents had an opportunity to help develop some information systems for the updated international airport in Mogadishu. I got to visit many of the surrounding areas and spend much of my time exploring the city with my friends and our guard (yes, we had a guard with us at all times for safety concerns), Dahir. This has had a huge impact on my life and has instilled in me a sense of empathy for people in poor developing countries. These people didn’t have much but were always willing to share what they had and welcomed us with open arms.

One of my most distinct memories of this time period was falling asleep to the sound of our neighbor’s diesel generator next to candlelight. Electricity in the capital, Mogadishu, would go out nightly and our neighbor had a large generator that would kick in which made me realize at a very young age the importance of reliable and plentiful energy to the infrastructure of society.

There have been many claims recently in the MSM that the situation in Somalia and the Horn of Africa (HOA) is evidence of the negative effects of climate change.

What is the history of drought in the HOA?

The Horn of Africa, which includes Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and parts of Kenya and Sudan, has a long history of droughts, which have had severe impacts on the region's population and environment.

Droughts in the Horn of Africa are largely driven by climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These climate patterns can affect rainfall patterns and temperature across the region, leading to prolonged periods of dryness and heat.

One of the most severe droughts in recent history occurred in the mid-1980s when the region experienced a series of droughts that led to widespread famine and the loss of an estimated 1 million lives.

Another major drought occurred in 2011, affecting Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. This drought was one of the worst in 60 years, and it led to widespread famine, displacement, and loss of life. These crises were further complicated by ongoing conflict and political instability in the region, which hindered relief efforts.

More recently, in 2017 and 2018, the Horn of Africa experienced another period of severe drought, which affected millions of people and led to significant crop losses and livestock deaths.

Overall, droughts in the Horn of Africa have had significant impacts on the region's population, economy, and environment, and climate change is expected to exacerbate these impacts in the coming decades.

Source: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/8/902#

Although these droughts have been horrible and devastating for the areas and people affected by them the overall population of Somalia has continued to increase rapidly.

Source: https://www.countryaah.com/somalia-population/

Precipitation changes in Somalia and the HOA…

Precipitation rates in the Horn of Africa have been highly variable over time and across different regions, but overall there has been a trend of decreasing rainfall in many parts of the region.

According to some climate models, the Horn of Africa is expected to become warmer and drier in the coming decades, with a projected decrease in rainfall. This trend is likely to have significant impacts on the region's agriculture, water resources, and overall ecological systems without rapid irrigation expansion.

Other climate models, however, project more notable episodes of extreme rainfall and flooding in parts of the Horn of Africa, such as the 2018 floods in Somalia and Kenya, suggesting that reservoir expansion could also be important in capturing rainfall for the growing season. However, these events are generally viewed as anomalies within a broader trend of decreasing precipitation.

The precipitation patterns in the Horn of Africa are complex and influenced by a variety of factors, including global climate patterns, regional climate variability, and local land-use changes. Thus, the exact nature and extent of changes in precipitation rates can vary significantly across different areas and over different time periods. The figure below: PRCP = precipitation, VHI = vegetation health index.

Source: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/8/902#

A comparison of Somalia to Fresno, CA…