Update: Climate Change and Disaster Trends...

Unpacking the Discrepancy Between Claims and Reality

Below is an update to this original article analyzing not only the number of events but also the deaths associated with such events since 2000.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), United Nations (UN), and World Economic Forum (WEF) have all highlighted the impact of climate change on hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters since 2000… But are those claims scientifically valid?

Here are some quotes from their reports and statements:

IPCC:

• "Human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial time, in particular for temperature extremes... Evidence of observed changes in extremes and their attribution to human influence has strengthened... for extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones and compound extremes" (IPCC, 2021)

• "There is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their overlapping occurrence in multiple regions, have increased since about 1950. Over many land regions, there is medium confidence that human-induced climate change has increased the number of heavy precipitation events (heavy rain and snow) since about 1950, and it is more likely than not that human-induced climate change has increased the proportion of land area experiencing freshwater flooding since about 1970." (IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, 2018)

UN:

• "The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change" (UN News, 2021)

• "The number of weather, climate, and water-related disasters has increased by a factor of five over the past 50 years, driven in part by climate change." (NPR, 2022)

• "Climate change and increasingly extreme weather events, have caused a surge in natural disasters over the past 50 years disproportionately impacting poorer countries" (UN News, 2021)

WEF:

• "Extreme weather events have increased dramatically in the past 20 years, taking a heavy human and economic toll worldwide, and are likely to wreak further havoc, the United Nations warned." (World Economic Forum Report 2020)

• "Extreme weather events and natural disasters are among the top global risks in terms of likelihood and impact, and climate change is a key driver of these risks." (World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2023)

These quotes show that the IPCC, UN, and WEF all agree that climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters since 2000.

So, what does the actual data say?

A joint 2020 report by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations own Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) investigated the number of disasters in the early 21st century. The report noted that over 1.23 million lives were lost and 4.2 billion people affected between 2000 and 2019, with extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, and droughts. However, regarding trends in these events, the report states:

Overall, the number of disaster events per year and the distribution of disaster sub-groups has remained relatively stable between the year 2000 and 2019, with an average of 367 recorded events per year (Figure 5).

Source: https://www.undrr.org/media/48008/download?startDownload=true

Relatively stable? They have slightly decreased. However, I wouldn’t call that a significant decrease or evidence that increased CO2 leads to fewer disasters. Nevertheless, relatively stable is not “increased dramatically” by any stretch.

So, despite the repeated claims by the IPCC, WEF, and the UN, and the ever-increasing anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric GHG concentrations, the number of hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters has not increased since 2000. The claims of increasing climate-related disasters due to increased GHG concentrations are pure propaganda and not supported by observable data.

Updated as of 1/02/2024.

As 2023, the hottest year eva’, comes to a close let’s take a look at how deaths associated with hydrological, meteorological, and climatological disasters have changed since 2000.