Evaluating the effects of climate change...

In order to better understand the effects of future warming, let's look at recent changes in tropical cyclones, global drought, and global area burned.

First, let’s look at what the IPCC says…

Regarding droughts, the IPCC states that droughts are likely to become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting in certain regions due to climate change. The report highlights that there is high confidence in the increase of drought conditions in the Mediterranean region, southwestern North America, and southern Africa. Additionally, the reports suggest that drought-related risks are projected to be particularly severe in regions with projected decreases in precipitation and/or increased evaporation due to rising temperatures.

Regarding global area burned, the IPCC reports indicate that climate change can increase the risk of wildfires in certain regions by creating more favorable fire weather conditions. Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns can lead to drier vegetation, making it more susceptible to ignition and facilitating fire spread. The impact of climate change on fire varies by region, influenced by factors such as vegetation type, land management practices, and human activities. However, the specific relationship between climate change and fire is complex, and uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist.

Regarding tropical cyclones, the IPCC states that it is likely that the frequency of tropical cyclones will either remain unchanged or decrease globally in the future. However, there is also high confidence that the intensity of tropical cyclones will likely increase, meaning that they may become stronger and more destructive. It is important to note that while the overall frequency may not change significantly, regional variations can occur, with some regions experiencing an increase in tropical cyclone activity.

Let’s look at how each of these has changed during the recent warming since 1850…