Global Shorelines Are Expanding—So Why Aren’t We Talking About It?

The Truth About Sea Levels and Natural Variability

The mainstream narrative surrounding sea level rise has long been dominated by statements from organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and mainstream media (MSM) outlets. These sources often emphasize that rising sea levels are primarily driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the resulting global warming. For instance, the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report asserts that “it is very likely that the rate of global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971–2010, primarily due to the thermal expansion of ocean water and the loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets, both driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.” The MSM echoes these claims, frequently attributing current and future sea level changes almost exclusively to human activities.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/climate/rising-sea-levels-pacific-islands-climate-intl-hnk-scn/index.html

However, recent studies, including one published in Nature Communications titled "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," challenge this oversimplified view. These studies explore the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other natural climate variables on global sea levels, revealing that natural variability plays a significant role in modulating sea level changes—a factor often underrepresented in public discourse.

Understanding ENSO and Its Role in Sea Level Variability

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO has two main phases: El Niño, which is associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and La Niña, which corresponds to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region. ENSO significantly impacts global weather patterns, including rainfall, temperature, and, crucially, sea level changes.

During an El Niño event, the redistribution of warm water across the Pacific leads to a temporary rise in global sea levels, particularly in the eastern Pacific, due to the thermal expansion of seawater. Conversely, La Niña typically results in a temporary lowering of sea levels as cooler water dominates, particularly in the western Pacific.

The Nature Communications paper underscores that ENSO-related variability can account for a substantial portion of observed sea level changes over short to medium timescales. The study finds that during strong El Niño events,