Has the IPCC got anything right? At what point do we stop listening?

In 2007 the IPCC claimed that, "yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020" in Africa. As usual, they got it exactly backwards.

The 2007 IPCC AR4…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, had several key findings about the impact of climate change on various sectors and regions, including agriculture in Africa.

The report highlighted, with very high confidence, that many African countries would experience a decline in agricultural output…

Agricultural production in many African countries and regions will likely be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability. This would adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition (very high confidence).

Agricultural yields and dependence on natural resources constitute a large part of local livelihoods in many, but not all, African countries. Agriculture is a major contributor to the current economy of most African countries, averaging 21% and ranging from 10% to 70% of GDP with indications that off-farm income augments the overall contribution of agriculture in some countries. Agricultural losses are shown to be possibly severe for several areas (e.g., the Sahel, East Africa and southern Africa) accompanied by changes in length of growing periods impacting mixed rain-fed, arid and semi-arid systems under certain climate projections. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.

Source: https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/tssts-4-2-1-africa.html

Let’s see how agricultural output has changed in the three regions, the Sahel, East Africa, and southern Africa, described in AR4.

Agricultural output since 2007 (adjusted to 2015 US$) for the Sahel, East Africa, and southern Africa…

The Sahel is a vast semi-arid region of Africa, stretching from the western coast in Senegal to the eastern fringes in Eritrea, effectively serving as a transitional zone between the arid Sahara Desert to the north and the more fertile savannahs to the south. Spanning over 5,400 kilometers, the Sahel covers portions of numerous countries including Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea. Historically, this region was crisscrossed by ancient trade routes and has been home to a melange of cultures, languages, and civilizations. The term "Sahel" is derived from the Arabic word for "shore" or "coast," which metaphorically paints the region as the shoreline of the expansive Sahara Desert.

In recent decades, the Sahel has increasingly come under the spotlight due to a combination of challenges. Rapid population growth, desertification, and frequent droughts have put immense pressure on these agriculture-based societies. In tandem with these pressures, political instability, insurgencies, and conflicts have emerged in parts of the Sahel, making it a focus of international humanitarian and security concerns.