How long can society continue to use fossil fuels?

Hubbert's peak predictions and abundance of clathrate hydrates.

Who was M. King Hubbert?

M. King Hubbert (Marion King Hubbert) was an American geophysicist who was born in 1903 in Texas. He is best known for developing the concept of '“Hubbert’s peak” or "Peak Oil," which refers to the point in time when the rate of oil production in a given region or the world as a whole reaches its maximum point, after which it will begin to decline.

Hubbert was a highly respected geophysicist who made significant contributions to the fields of geology, seismology, and petroleum engineering. He worked for several decades in the oil and gas industry, including at the Shell Oil Company, where he developed many of his ideas about oil production and depletion.

In addition to his work on Peak Oil, Hubbert also made important contributions to our understanding of how rocks fracture and how earthquakes occur. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences and received numerous awards and honors during his career, including the Vetlesen Prize, which is considered one of the highest honors in the earth sciences.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert

What is Hubbert’s Peak or Peak Oil?

Hubbert's theory suggested that the production of oil in any given region follows a bell-shaped curve, with production rates increasing until roughly halfway through the oil reserve has been depleted, and then declining steadily thereafter.

According to Hubbert's theory, oil production in a given region will eventually reach a peak, after which production rates will begin to decline, as it becomes more difficult and expensive to extract the remaining oil. This peak is sometimes referred to as "Hubbert's Peak" or the "Peak Oil" phenomenon. The concept has important implications for global energy security and sustainability, as it suggests that the world may eventually reach a peak in global oil production, after which it will become increasingly difficult to meet growing energy demands.

Were Hubbert’s peak predictions correct in the USA?

The accuracy of Hubbert's peak predictions has been a subject of much debate. Hubbert first applied his model to the production of oil in the United States and predicted that the country's oil production would peak around 1970 and then decline steadily thereafter. This prediction was largely inaccurate, although US oil production did indeed peak in the 1970s, production didn’t continue to decline and has shown a resurgence since 2008.