The Green Revolution’s Dirty Secret
Rare Earths, Geopolitics, and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (An Update)
This article serves as an update to my previous piece, The Russia-Ukraine Conflict May Represent the First Resource War of the Green Revolution. When I first wrote that article months ago, I suggested that rare earth elements (REEs) played a critical but overlooked role in the motivations behind the war. Now, with new developments in peace talks and additional geopolitical maneuvering, it appears I was likely right.
What Are Rare Earth Elements (REEs)?
REEs are a set of 17 chemically similar elements that possess unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties. These qualities make them indispensable for modern technology, particularly in renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles (EVs), and advanced electronics. Despite their name, REEs are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust, but they are rarely found in concentrated and economically extractable forms. This makes their mining and processing both technologically challenging and environmentally hazardous.
The process of extracting REEs involves several complex steps. First, REE-rich ores must be mined and crushed. Then, chemical separation techniques, often using acids or solvents, are employed to isolate the individual elements. This process generates significant toxic waste, raising concerns about its environmental impact. China dominates the global REE supply chain, refining over 90% of the world's REEs, which has led to major geopolitical dependencies.
My Research on REEs
REEs are not only crucial for energy technologies but also for geochemical studies. In my own research, I have used REE data to analyze zircon crystals and understand the geological processes of rock formation. You can find one of my published studies utilizing REEs in geochemistry here: Geochemical signatures and magmatic stability of terrestrial impact produced zircon. The distribution of REEs within zircon provides key insights into the history of Earth's crust and mantle, highlighting their broader scientific importance beyond energy applications.
Ukraine’s Untapped REE Wealth and the New Geopolitical Landscape
In July 2021, the European Union signed a strategic agreement with Ukraine to explore and develop its REE deposits, seeking to reduce reliance on China. Ukraine is believed to hold vast reserves of critical minerals, particularly heavy REEs essential for electric vehicles and wind turbines. Notably, these mineral-rich areas are concentrated in eastern Ukraine, the very region under Russian occupation. This raised suspicions that control over these resources was a hidden driver of the conflict.
Fast forward to today, and we are seeing reports of possible peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. While the mainstream narrative continues to focus on political and territorial issues, the question remains: will control over Ukraine’s REE deposits be part of the final deal? If Ukraine retains its sovereignty over these resources, it could shift global supply chains, reducing European dependence on China and weakening Russia’s leverage in resource markets.
A recent Financial Times report highlights that the European Union is now aggressively seeking to secure alternative REE supply chains, a move that further underscores the strategic importance of these minerals. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims to ensure a stable and independent supply of key resources, reducing reliance on China’s near-monopoly. This legislation signals that Western nations are waking up to the resource vulnerabilities posed by the green energy transition.
Was This the First Resource War of the Green Revolution?
As I previously argued, the war in Ukraine may not be solely about political and historical tensions, it may also be about the minerals required for the global energy transition. With REEs being a cornerstone of modern industry, any disruption in their supply has massive economic and strategic implications.
Now, with discussions of a peace settlement gaining traction, it is becoming increasingly clear that access to critical resources like REEs could be a hidden factor shaping negotiations. If I was correct in my initial assessment, then the Ukraine conflict marks a significant turning point in how nations view and fight over strategic mineral resources in the age of renewable energy.
The Bigger Picture
The reliance on REEs exposes a fundamental contradiction in the green energy agenda: while advocates push for a transition away from fossil fuels, they often ignore the environmental and geopolitical costs of mining and refining rare earth elements. Western nations cannot continue to rely on a single dominant supplier, whether it be China or another nation, for these crucial materials.
The next time you hear about the promise of a ‘clean energy future,’ remember to ask: where will the materials come from, and who stands to benefit? If the Ukraine conflict is any indication, the race for REEs is only beginning, and its consequences will shape global politics for decades to come.
Good observations, although I think the green energy transition is already dying. Real energy transitions happen when a new source is cheaper or more convenient. This government mandated, subsidy ridden nonsense is neither.
USA has plenty of these minerals as well, but our environmental rules make them prohibitively expensive to exploit.