The Myth of Ever-Escalating Climate Costs in the USA

What the Numbers Really Show

Over the past several years, I have published multiple articles questioning the dominant narrative that every weather disaster is clear-cut evidence of galloping climate costs. In these pieces, I analyzed the mismatch between frightening media forecasts and actual, inflation-adjusted damage data. Time after time, the results contradicted the notion of an inexorable upward march in losses. Now, with 2024 figures still forthcoming, I’ve taken the opportunity to update the numbers through 2023 (found here: https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/sum23.pdf) to see whether any newly emerging trends might confirm the alarmist storyline.

What emerges from this updated dataset is that while certain weather events (like wildfires or hurricanes) can cause large spikes in damage during specific years, there is no consistent, compounding increase that lines up with the idea of an unavoidable climate apocalypse. Natural variability, land-use decisions, and policy choices appear to shape the data far more than a simple correlation with rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Indeed, the year-to-year damage graphs look remarkably jagged, and the patterns they form make it increasingly difficult to insist that every type of weather event grows worse by default.

Lightning: Where’s the Ever-Rising Danger?

One of the frequently repeated claims in the media is that lightning damage will intensify alongside a warming atmosphere, with pundits citing warmer temperatures that supposedly breed more thunderstorms and, by extension, more lightning strikes. Figure 1 tracks lightning-related damage from 2012 to 2023 (in millions, adjusted to 2023 dollars), and the results show anything but a tidy, ascending line. In some years, costs are comparatively high due to either more numerous strikes or concentrated damage in populated areas, but other years see a noticeable dip.

Despite bold predictions, often from climate commentators featured prominently in mainstream outlets, about an inevitable surge in lightning-inflicted property loss, the data reveal a series of rises and falls rather than a straightforward escalation. It’s important to remember that changing demographics also matter: if more people and businesses occupy lightning-prone regions, even a normal thunderstorm season might impose higher absolute damage costs. However, these nuances seldom appear in dramatic headlines claiming that lightning alone will become an ever-growing menace.

Figure 1

Extreme Heat: Apocalyptic Claims vs. Reality

Few weather phenomena have been used to sell the climate crisis quite like extreme heat. Media reports often feature vivid language about “unprecedented heat waves” or “deadly temperature extremes” that supposedly represent a harbinger of our collective doom. Figure 2, which captures damage costs attributable to extreme heat, shows occasional spikes, particularly in years when big heat waves hit major agricultural areas or urban centers not fully prepared.