Irrational Fear

Irrational Fear

The Statistical Myth of 'Once-in-a-1000-Year' Weather Events

How Data Limits and Media Hype Fuel Misleading Claims

Dr. Matthew Wielicki's avatar
Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Sep 17, 2024
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When the media claims we’re experiencing a "once in 500-year" or "once in 1,000-year" weather event, they’re missing a fundamental point about how data works, and as an Earth Scientist, this is something I’m acutely aware of. In geology, we study the Earth’s long history through rock formations, sediment layers, and fossil records, which help us track m…

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