Why CO₂ Cannot Explain Current Warming

Rethinking the Drivers of Climate Change

For decades, the dominant climate narrative has been that rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels are the primary driver of global warming. We are told that because CO₂ levels are higher than at any point in human history, we should expect catastrophic warming. But a fundamental contradiction in this narrative is hiding in plain sight: The last interglacial period, the Eemian, was significantly warmer than today, despite CO₂ levels being much lower.

This glaring inconsistency should give pause to anyone who accepts the idea that CO₂ is the sole or even primary climate control knob. If CO₂ is truly the driving force behind global temperature, why was it hotter 120,000 years ago when CO₂ was only 275-280 ppm? Why have climate models consistently failed to accurately recreate past climate conditions? If climate models cannot reliably reproduce known historical warm periods like the Eemian, how can we trust their projections for the future? These discrepancies highlight fundamental flaws in the assumptions underpinning climate modeling, raising serious doubts about their ability to predict long-term climate trends with precision.

The evidence is clear: CO₂ is not the dominant driver of Earth’s temperature. Natural factors such as orbital shifts, solar insolation, ocean circulation, and long-term feedback mechanisms, played a much greater role in shaping past climate changes than CO₂. Ignoring these factors in today’s climate debate is not just bad science; it’s deliberate deception.

Glacial and Interglacial Periods: A Natural Climate Cycle

Over hundreds of thousands of years, Earth's climate has oscillated between colder glacial periods and warmer interglacial periods. These shifts are largely driven by Milankovitch cycles, which involve variations in Earth's orbit, axial tilt, and precession. These changes alter the distribution and intensity of solar radiation, initiating warming or cooling periods.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial

For example, during glacial periods, massive ice sheets cover large portions of the continents, and global temperatures are significantly lower. In contrast, interglacial periods are marked by retreating ice and warmer global temperatures. These cycles are part of Earth’s natural rhythm, independent of human influence. To better understand these mechanisms, refer to my article on Milankovitch Cycles.

The Eemian Interglacial: A Climate Puzzle

The Eemian interglacial period, which occurred approximately 120,000 years ago, provides a fascinating case study.