Irrational Fear

Irrational Fear

Share this post

Irrational Fear
Irrational Fear
A tale of two wildfire seasons.

A tale of two wildfire seasons.

The disparities in wildfire seasons between Canada and the USA emphasize that factors beyond climate change influence fire intensity and frequency.

Dr. Matthew Wielicki's avatar
Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Oct 13, 2023
∙ Paid
7

Share this post

Irrational Fear
Irrational Fear
A tale of two wildfire seasons.
2
1
Share

Comparing and Contrasting the Fire Season in the USA and Canada

The 2023 fire season in the USA has been one of the least severe on record. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), as of October 13, 2023, a total of 2.57 million acres have burned in the USA this year. This is significantly below the 10-year average (2013-2022) of 6.22 million acres burned.

Share

Climate Change Indicators: Wildfires | US EPA

In contrast, the 2023 fire season in Canada has been more severe, with over 18.5 million hectares (45 million acres) burned so far this year. This compares to an average of 2.7 million hectares burned over the past decade.

Source: https://ciffc.ca/

Trends in Wildfire Activity in the USA and Canada Over the Last Century

Wildfire activity in both the USA and Canada has been decreasing over the past century. This is due to several factors, including fire suppression technology and land use changes.

Population growth continues to increase the risk of wildfire activity. As more people move into fire-prone areas, the risk of human-caused fires increases. Additionally, land use changes, such as the conversion of forests to agricultural land, can change fire behavior.

For more about the history of fire in the USA see:

Update: A remarkably quiet fire season in the US...

August 30, 2023
Update: A remarkably quiet fire season in the US...

This is an update to an article originally published on 08/09/2023 in response to claims that the anomalous fire season in Canada is fueled by GHG concentrations. Over the last few days, there has been renewed reporting on wildfires in the US with many outlets reporting on fires in Louisiana. Some headlines read…

Read full story

In the above article, I received some pushback for using this figure.

moyhu: Burning history - fiery furphies.

It was mentioned that the following is stated on the NFIC website:

Prior to 1983, the federal wildland fire agencies did not track official wildfire data using current reporting processes. As a result, there is no official data prior to 1983 posted on this site.

It has been noted that numerous federal, state, and local entities each recorded fire data in their unique styles, adopting varied methods to document diverse data sets. Thus the records are marred by innate reporting biases, discrepancies, and inaccuracies or ambiguities in the data.

To address these problems, a research study was published in the journal Ecological Applications titled, “Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916–2003” and contains the following figure which shows fire history in 11 western states over the last century.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Irrational Fear to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share