Firestorm of Lies
The Real Reasons Behind California’s Pacific Palisades Fire
In a recent CNN interview, Dr. Michael E. Mann attributed the devastating Pacific Palisades Fire primarily to climate change, stating, “15 of the worst 20 wildfires have occurred in the last 15 years.” A dramatic statement from Dr. Michael Mann… but is it the whole truth? As California battles yet another inferno, it’s clear that the real accelerants are not atmospheric CO₂ but decades of poor planning and policy missteps.
Before diving into the historical perspective, it’s important to acknowledge and summarize the excellent work done by others in analyzing the factors behind the Palisades Fire. I won’t attempt to rewrite their analyses but instead encourage you to read them directly while offering summaries below. My focus here will be on expanding the historical context and addressing California’s broader policy failures in dealing with wildfire risks.
Summaries of Key Articles on the Palisades Fire
Patrick T. Brown’s Analysis: This analysis focuses on meteorological factors, particularly the role of Santa Ana winds, which drive fire behavior. It also discusses fuel conditions and human ignitions, noting that climate change plays a marginal role compared to actionable solutions like fuel management and ignition prevention.
Chris Martz’s Breakdown: A deep dive into ignition sources, this article highlights that all Santa Ana wind-driven fires in Southern California (1948–2018) were human-caused. It also emphasizes that air temperature and precipitation deficits play a minor role compared to human activity and poor land management.
Anthony Watts’ Perspective: This piece critiques the media’s tendency to attribute wildfires to climate change while ignoring historical wildfire data, poor land management, and urban sprawl into fire-prone areas. It advocates for practical solutions over alarmist narratives.
For detailed analyses, I encourage you to read these articles directly. Below, I focus on expanding the historical perspective and evaluating California’s response to wildfire risks.
Historical Wildfire Context
Wildfires have long been a natural part of California’s landscape, predating industrialization and the current climate change narrative. Historical records reveal that significant wildfires in the region are nothing new.
For instance, the 1956 Newton Fire in Malibu consumed 26,000 acres, destroyed over 100 homes, and caused one fatality (source).
Similarly, the Santa Monica Mountain Fire in 1938 burned parts of Pacific Palisades (source). These events occurred decades before climate change became a prominent discussion point, highlighting that fire risks in Southern California are intrinsic to the region’s ecosystem.
Fires in Preindustrial Contexts
Fire has always been integral to California’s ecosystem. California’s Indigenous peoples used fire as a tool to shape ecosystems for thousands of years, maintaining healthy landscapes and preventing catastrophic burns. Modern fire suppression policies have disrupted these cycles, leading to dangerous fuel accumulation.
A study in Forest Ecology and Management (source) examines fire behavior during preindustrial times and finds that large-scale fires were common, even at lower atmospheric CO2 levels. These fires were part of natural cycles influenced by lightning and Indigenous land management practices.
Approximately 1.8 million ha burned annually in California prehistorically (pre 1800). Our estimate of prehistoric annual area burned in California is 88% of the total annual wildfire area in the entire US during a decade (1994–2004) characterized as “extreme” regarding wildfires. The idea that US wildfire area of approximately two million ha annually is extreme is certainly a 20th or 21st century perspective.
In contrast, modern policies of fire suppression have disrupted these cycles, allowing dangerous fuel accumulation. Historical fire records from Malibu and Pacific Palisade, such as the 1938 and 1956 events, demonstrate that catastrophic fires are not unique to the modern era.
Urbanization in Fire-Prone Areas
The impact of wildfires has grown significantly due to increasing urbanization in fire-prone chaparral environments. The two images below illustrate the dramatic transformation of Pacific Palisades over the decades:
Historical Image (1929): This photograph shows Pacific Palisades as a sparsely populated region dominated by natural chaparral vegetation. The absence of dense urban development allowed wildfires to burn more freely without endangering significant human structures.
Modern Image (2024): The satellite imagery highlights extensive urbanization, with homes, roads, and infrastructure now covering much of the area. This development not only increases the risk to life and property but also complicates firefighting efforts by creating more ignition points and reducing access to open spaces for controlled burns.
The expansion of the wildland-urban interface demonstrates that urban planning has not adequately accounted for fire risks. Did we learn from past fires? Judging by the rising population density in these fire-prone areas, the answer appears to be no.
The Role of Santa Ana Winds
Santa Ana winds are a critical driver of wildfires in Southern California. These powerful, dry winds, which can reach hurricane-force speeds, are a well-documented weather phenomenon resulting from high-pressure systems over the Great Basin. While some have speculated that climate change could influence these winds, studies show mixed results.
For instance, Guzman-Morales & Gershunov (2019) found that a weakening of the southwest pressure gradient driving these winds could decrease their frequency (study). Regardless, the Santa Ana winds are as natural to Southern California as the Pacific Ocean.
Water Management and Firefighting Resources
One of the most glaring issues is California’s inadequate water management. California squandered record rainfall from its wettest two-year period in a century. Billions of gallons were flushed to protect a 3-inch fish, leaving firefighters scrambling for resources.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles has failed to significantly expand surface water storage to support firefighting efforts. My earlier article, Water Management or Mismanagement, delves into these failures in detail.
Where is that water now? California’s politicians and water managers have squandered a prime opportunity to bolster firefighting capabilities.
The Media and Climate Narratives
The media’s tendency to attribute every natural disaster to climate change is both misleading and counterproductive. Articles from outlets like Axios and Newsweek focus on vague “climate factors” while ignoring actionable solutions such as controlled burns, vegetation thinning, and improved urban planning.
Dr. Mann’s assertion that wildfires are primarily climate-driven is emblematic of this problem. By pinning the blame on a trace gas, scientists and politicians avoid accountability for addressing real-world issues like land management and infrastructure improvements.
Practical Solutions
Improved Land Management: Controlled burns and mechanical thinning of underbrush can significantly reduce fire risks. These methods were used effectively by Native Americans for centuries but have been neglected in modern times.
Urban Planning: Limiting development in the wildland-urban interface and enforcing defensible space around structures can mitigate fire damage.
Water Storage: California must prioritize expanding surface water storage and improving water infrastructure to ensure sufficient resources for firefighting.
Utility Upgrades: Placing powerlines underground and maintaining existing infrastructure can reduce fire ignitions caused by utility failures.
Conclusion: Stop the Blame Game
As I have mentioned before, blaming climate change for California’s wildfires is the ultimate cop-out. It’s a convenient narrative for lazy scientists and incompetent politicians who fail to address the real issues. Historical fires like those in 1938 and 1956 demonstrate that these events are neither new nor unprecedented.
We can’t afford to let politicians and scientists like Dr. Mann distract from the real issues. California doesn’t need more rhetoric, it needs responsible leadership, improved land management, smarter water policies, and better urban planning. The Palisades Fire isn’t a climate crisis; it’s a wake-up call to fix what’s broken.
This reminds me of the disaster on Maui, which was caused by decades of incompetence. 🙄 I liked Lahaina, now it is gone.
Matt, I also recommend Jon Keeley's article in Shellenberger's "Public" available on Substack.