Unnatural Disasters

How Human Mismanagement, Not Climate, Fuels California’s Fire Crises

Imagine a California without human inhabitants, a landscape shaped entirely by the forces of nature. The vast chaparral-covered hills, expansive oak savannahs, and dense redwood forests would be governed by the rhythms of fire, drought, and rain in cycles dictated by the natural world. Fires would sweep through regularly, maintaining the health of ecosystems. Extended droughts and wetter periods would come and go, sculpting the state's rivers, lakes, and vegetation. This dynamic equilibrium existed long before humans arrived, and it underscores the natural variability of California’s environment.

What if the "natural" disasters of today are actually the result of decades of unnatural mismanagement? Modern discussions around California’s environmental challenges often center on the idea that human activity, specifically, fossil fuel use, has fundamentally altered these processes. While anthropogenic influences undoubtedly exist, many within the climate movement advocate a Malthusian perspective, implying that fewer humans or drastically reduced human activity is the only path to environmental salvation. But is this narrative supported by the evidence?

To answer this, we must examine what California looked like before European settlement and compare those conditions to today’s environment. By establishing a baseline rooted in history and pre-industrial data, we can better understand whether modern fires and droughts are truly unprecedented or simply part of California’s natural variability. This perspective also helps us identify practical solutions rather than relying on narratives that ignore the lessons of the past.

Fires in Pre-Industrial California

As mentioned in Firestorm of Lies: The Real Reasons Behind California’s Pacific Palisades Fire, before European settlers arrived in California, wildfires were a natural and frequent part of the landscape. Fires significantly larger than today played a vital role in maintaining healthy ecosystems by clearing out dead vegetation, recycling nutrients, and supporting biodiversity. These fires were often low-intensity and covered vast areas, preventing the accumulation of fuel that can lead to catastrophic blazes.

Figure: Estimated fire activity in pre-industrial California, demonstrating significantly higher burn areas compared to modern times. Source: https://www.americanexperiment.org/michael-shellenberger-stop-blaming-climate-change-for-californias-fires-many-forests-including-the-redwoods-need-them/

In contrast, modern fire suppression policies have disrupted this natural cycle. By prioritizing the extinguishment of all fires, these policies have allowed dead vegetation to accumulate, creating a tinderbox in many areas. When fires do occur, they are often far more intense and destructive than the low-intensity burns of the past.

In fact, a recent study (source) highlights how human land management has fundamentally altered fire regimes. The study finds that decades of fire suppression and urban development have created unnatural landscapes with accumulated fuels, amplifying the intensity and destructiveness of fires. For instance, the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was estimated at 40 years, underscoring how decades of mismanagement have allowed highly combustible materials to accumulate.

Combining these Δ¹⁴C data with a steady-state one-box ecosystem model, we estimated that the mean age of fuels combusted in the KNP Complex Fire was 40 years, with a range of 29–57 years. These results provide evidence for emissions originating from woody biomass, larger-diameter fine fuels, and coarse woody debris that have accumulated over multiple decades.

This shift from frequent, manageable fires to infrequent, catastrophic ones is a direct consequence of human intervention in natural processes, not a result of rising CO2 levels.

Droughts: A Long-Term Perspective

Drought is another area where historical baselines offer valuable insights. California’s climate has always been characterized by variability, with periods of wetness followed by extended dry spells. Long before industrialization, the region experienced droughts that lasted for decades or even centuries, far exceeding the severity of modern droughts.